9월엔 미국 의회가 내년 예산을 결정합니다. 북한에 대한 선제공격을 위해 펜타곤의 거대한 로비가 예상됩니다. 85%의 지지율로 문재인 대통령은 당당하게 북미 외교를 촉구하시기 바랍니다. 허니문 100일내 달성하지 못한 역사적인 임무를 다음 100일내 반드시 수행하시길 빕니다.
Where there is despair, hope.
Dear Friend--a quick update.
Which side should we be?--war and endless war game or talks, diplomacy and peace?
When should we act?--now or leaving our homework to our children and grandchildren?
Stop preventative war, start preventative diplomacy now!
I. Three U.S. senators and two House Representatives are in Seoul, calling for immediate negotiations with North Korea: “Talking with N. Korea is not a concession!”
Senior U.S. senator says preventive war will make N.K. issue worse, calls for peaceful approach
SEOUL, Aug. 22 (Yonhap) -- A senior U.S. senator said Tuesday that a preventive war would not solve North Korea's nuclear threats but rather make things "much much worse," calling for a peaceful way to deal with Pyongyang's continued pursuit of weapons of mass destruction. Sen. Edward Markey (D-MA), a ranking member of the Senate Subcommittee on East Asia and Pacific Affairs, made the remark at a press conference in Seoul. Markey is visiting Seoul leading a congressional delegation including Sens. Jeff Merkley (D-OR.) and Chris Van Hollen (D-MD), as well as two members of the House of Representatives, Carolyn Maloney (D-NY) and Ann Wagner (R-MO). http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/news/2017/08/22/0200000000AEN20170822006500315.html
South Koreans peace flash mob: Seoul Plaza, August 21, 2017
II. Brief chronology: If the US signed a peace treaty, there would not have been a nuclear crisis.
North Korea has repeatedly sought a peace treaty with the US.
US repeatedly violated US-North Korea agreements.
South Korean rightwing administrations and military establishment obstructed deals with North Korea and US.
If the US signed a peace treaty, there would not have been a nuclear crisis.
1) Early 1990s: USSR collapsed and Russia and South Korea reached diplomatic normalization
North Korea approached US; agreed denuclarization
2) 1/21/1992: North Korean leader Kim Il-sung sent Kim Yong-soon to New York
If US signs a peace treaty, North Korea will not demand the withdrawal of US troops stationed in South Korea
North Korea was accepted as a sovereign nation by becoming a UN member
With a peace treaty, North Korea also wanted to receive security assurance from the United States. If the US signed a peace treaty, there would not have been a nuclear crisis.
3) North Korea again demanded a peace treaty with the US under George H. Bush who said no
1992: United States intensified inspection of North Korea
1993: North Korea withdrew from NPT—the beginning of nuclear crisis
4) October, 1994: Bill Clinton, US-DPRK agreement in Geneva
US pledged to sign a peace treaty within 3 months after DPRK freeze its nuke program and US will supply electricity to North Korea
North Korea froze nuclear programs
Republicans win midterm elections and become a majority
President Bill Clinton was unable to implement the peace treaty within 3 months
Republican party opposed and blocked any of President Bill Clinton’s initiatives
5) North Korea however waited in part because it received supply of electricity
Since 1997, KEDO begun and continued until 2002
US broke the deal and North resumed nuclear program
Bush called for the 6 party talk to address the crisis
2005: North Korea abandoned all nuke programs and returned to the NPT with yet another promise of a peace treaty (September 15 declaration)
6) US began sanctions against North Korea’s assets
North Korea claimed the US broke the deal and resumed nuke program and tested the first nuke
Bush entered negotiation again with the promise of a peace treaty
2007: February 13 agreement
Bush unable to implement due to opposition within rightwing and in the last stage of presidency
7) 2008, 2/29: President Obama and Secretary Hillary Clinton proposed denuclearization and peace treaty as a package
South Korean President Lee Myongbak rejected it
Due to South Korean rightwing Lee administration’s lack of cooperation, President Obama was unable to implement the deal and gave up his initiative with so called strategic patience which means do-nothing
8) 2012-2016: South Korean President Park Geun-hye: Unification Jackpot and implemented hardline policy and pressure on North Korea
No 6 party talk, no talks under President Park
North Korea 5th nuke test (no nuke test during 6 party talks)
To sump up
North Korea repeatedly sought a peace treaty with the US
US repeatedly violated US-North Korea agreements
South Korean rightwing administrations and military establishment obstructed deals with North Korea and US
Lessons
Now is another and perhaps the last opportunity for a deal
United States must aggressively seek diplomacy with North Korea
South Korean President Moon jae-in must set a priority: solve the Korean problem NOW, not later!
North Korean children with bears at a zoo
III. 5 steps to prevent a nuclear war in the Korean Peninsula
5 steps: 1) create a sense of urgency (massive movement and public pressure); 2) find North Korea’s needs; 3) offer solutions; 4) seal and close the deal; and, 5) implement!
IV. References
1)The New York Times. Talk of `Preventive War’ Rises in White House Over North Korea
“There is no such thing as a surgical strike against North Korea,” Bruce Bennett, a North Korea expert at the RAND Corporation, said in one of its recent publications. “We don’t really know for sure where all their weapons are.’’
https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/08/20/world/asia/north-korea-war-trump.html
2)John Delury. Foreign Affairs. Foreign Affairs. Take Preventative War With North Korea Off the Table
Despite the underlying policy continuity, however, there has been a major shift in the way this administration talks about North Korea. The president coyly alludes to pre-emptive strikes, and his senior advisors explicitly bring up “preventive war.” These ideas have featured frequently in the media and have become normalized in public discussion. The so-called military option, a fringe position a year ago, is now part of the mainstream debate.
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/north-korea/2017-08-22/take-preventive-war-north-korea-table
3)Hankyoreh. Moon reiterates warning to US against unilateral military action on North Korea President tells visiting US politicians, ‘there is no way we can go back’ to the devastation of the Korean War
http://english.hani.co.kr/arti/english_edition/e_national/807845.html
4)Tim Beal. A Korean Tragedy. The Asia-Pacific Journal
Moon Jae-in’s failure to challenge South Korea’s servile relationship to the United States has condemned his presidency to impotence. As the ‘August Crisis’ unfolds the South Korean president has little influence over the situation. He is spurned by Pyongyang, has no traction in Beijing or Tokyo, and is taken for granted in Washington…. South Korea’s tragedy is that Moon Jae-in has failed to realise that if he is to fulfil his allegiance to his people he needs to break free from the status of client and pawn and move towards autonomy and then independence. The ‘Candlelight Revolution’ offered an historic possibility to attempt to do this but President Moon has squandered the opportunity.
http://apjjf.org/2017/16/Beal.html
5)The Guardian. Snapshots of daily life in North Korea – in pictures
https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/gallery/2016/dec/02/north-korea-snapshots-daily-life-in-pictures
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